Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.097764 0.111676 0.126789 0.144416 0.164400 0.186346 0.212267
2026-01-18 0.079099 0.097768 0.119608 0.147007 0.180429 0.219842 0.269819
2026-01-25 0.061305 0.081538 0.106890 0.140910 0.185292 0.241149 0.316711
2026-02-01 0.047238 0.067391 0.094352 0.132922 0.186536 0.258273 0.361384
2026-02-08 0.037706 0.057518 0.085728 0.128609 0.191900 0.281602 0.418075
2026-02-15 0.030189 0.049112 0.077715 0.123787 0.195777 0.303526 0.476487
2026-02-22 0.025861 0.044706 0.074839 0.126085 0.210543 0.343532 0.567900
2026-03-01 0.021085 0.038674 0.068381 0.121639 0.214046 0.366834 0.637217
2026-03-08 0.017485 0.033945 0.063237 0.118456 0.219066 0.393280 0.715792
2026-03-15 0.014606 0.029950 0.058660 0.115445 0.223844 0.419968 0.798886
2026-03-22 0.012969 0.027990 0.057446 0.118379 0.239841 0.468721 0.928732
2026-03-29 0.011217 0.025452 0.054677 0.117825 0.249101 0.506403 1.043620
2026-04-05 0.009823 0.023449 0.052744 0.118888 0.262312 0.554707 1.188861
2026-04-12 0.008728 0.021885 0.051463 0.121134 0.278454 0.611514 1.360629
2026-04-19 0.007285 0.019202 0.047233 0.116151 0.278260 0.634728 1.466300
2026-04-26 0.005993 0.016597 0.042682 0.109578 0.273379 0.647206 1.550958
2026-05-03 0.005086 0.014771 0.039640 0.106040 0.274966 0.674351 1.673131
2026-05-10 0.004305 0.013100 0.036652 0.102068 0.274819 0.697523 1.789937
2026-05-17 0.003894 0.012375 0.035985 0.103999 0.289891 0.759345 2.009714
2026-05-24 0.003324 0.011046 0.033420 0.100326 0.289731 0.783717 2.140439
2026-05-31 0.002876 0.009978 0.031372 0.097697 0.291932 0.814457 2.292487
2026-06-07 0.002496 0.009037 0.029498 0.095208 0.294089 0.845443 2.450205
2026-06-14 0.002303 0.008667 0.029282 0.097651 0.310907 0.918538 2.733646